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When it comes to summer fun in the sun, we rely on expert meteorologists to help us plan for the weather. They can let us know whether it will be hot, cloudy, or humid, and can even provide insight into major storms. Summer is the perfect time of year to spend outside with family, but it’s also the height of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. No one likes to think about these kinds of storms. Thankfully, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration study them daily and can help predict what’s coming our way. According to a release from NOAA, the 2026 hurricane season could be pretty mild.
The 2026 Hurricane Predictions Look Promising
According to the NOAA, we have a 35% chance of a typical hurricane season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a promising-looking 55% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA explained that an average hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. In 2026, the NOAA predicts with 70% confidence eight to 14 named storms, of which three to six could be hurricanes, and one to three could be major hurricanes.
“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data, will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D explained in a news release. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”
NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham cautioned not to get too excited just yet. These are simply predictions, and the weather can change very quickly. We always need to prepare, just in case.
“Although El NiƱo’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” he said. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
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