Rich Rainfall Set to Bust Mexico’s 6-year Drought

Why this story matters: This piece serves as a constructive counterpoint to the prevailing sense of pessimism, offering readers a well-reasoned and evidence-based cause for optimism in a time when hope can feel hard to come by.

Quick summary: This story highlights recent developments related to drought, showing how constructive action can lead to meaningful results.

According to current predictions, Mexico may be free from a multi-year drought at the end of its current rainy season.

Running from May to October, a wetter-than-normal El Niño phenomenon has led to rich rains across Mexico, from the drier north to the more humid south.

Dante Sinohé Hernández Padrón, a researcher with the National Water Commission (Conagua), said during the 40th Climate Perspectives Forum in May that there has been a 94% recovery from existing droughts across the country.

Droughts are measured in the country through a rating of D0 to D5. The vast majority of the country’s territory are D0, with patches of D1—a state of dryness preceding real drought, and smaller patches inside those D1 areas of D2.

Just before the 2025 rainy season, almost half of Mexico—596 municipalities or 46.5% of the country—fell into the D1 to D4 categories, according to Conagua.

As of June 15, only 2.4% of the territory was experiencing drought (D1-D4).

Only a tiny area of desert in Chihuahua State is experiencing severe drought, considered D3, and only where it touches against the US border.

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